Charging an electric car, in a 2024 file photo. EFE/Mariscal
Science Desk, August 6 (EFE) – Should you keep a new combustion engine car or buy an electric one? Anyone concerned about climate change (and who can afford it) should switch to electric, according to a study that has found the impact of replacing a gasoline vehicle is less than letting it pollute for its entire lifespan.
Researchers from the universities of California in Santa Cruz and Santa Barbara have modeled what has the most negative impact on the environment: removing and scrapping combustion engine cars, even if they are only one or two years old, and replacing them with electric ones or letting them circulate as long as they work (an average of 16 years).
The findings, published Thursday in the journal Science, indicate that replacing new combustion and hybrid vehicles with electric ones helps reduce carbon (CO2) emissions.
The authors, Elliott Campbell of Santa Cruz and David Bren of Santa Barbara, have analyzed the CO2 emissions of more than 400 models of combustion engine vehicles and the manufacture of electric vehicles, the sources of electricity grid power for charging the latter, and mileage.
Their results show that climate benefits are greatest when gasoline vehicles are phased out in the first year, resulting in a 58% reduction in carbon emissions over a 16-year period.
In the case of withdrawal in the second year, emissions over the entire life cycle would be reduced by 44%.
The reduction in emissions resulting from driving an electric vehicle to offset the pollution generated by its manufacture is recouped in three years, according to the authors’ calculations. From then on, the climate benefits multiply.
“Gasoline cars only use 20% of the fuel’s energy to move the vehicle; the rest is lost as heat. Unlike electric cars, which are pure efficiency. The switch pays off,” Campbell emphasizes.
Exceptions
The authors have found nuances in their results. For example, plug-in hybrid vehicles are a notable exception. Given their greater efficiency due to their electric batteries, and the significant environmental impact of battery recycling, premature retirement is not advisable.
It is also not worth replacing internal combustion engine vehicles that travel few kilometers: less than 7,054 in the case of passenger cars, less than 6,837 in SUVs or less than 10,794 in the case of trucks.
The type of electricity that powers the grid where the charging takes place also plays a role. In areas where energy comes from highly polluting fossil fuels (coal, gas, etc.), the benefit in terms of emissions reduction from driving an electric vehicle is smaller. In these cases, it is more difficult to offset the emissions costs of producing a new electric vehicle.
However, in the case of the United States, the authors emphasize that “the early retirement of the most fuel-efficient gasoline cars offers advantages for emissions reduction even in the most polluting electrical grids.”
Policy Implications
Overall, the study’s results show that “supporting drivers to switch from combustion engine vehicles to electric vehicles as soon as possible is crucial to combating climate change.”
The research findings also highlight the potential benefits of expanding eligibility criteria for “scrap and replace” programs to a wider range of internal combustion engine cars, beyond the highest-emission vehicles.
